“EVERYONE IS A GENIUS IN A BULL MARKET.”
This is a line that I recently came across on YouTube.
I found it quite interesting because it sparked a little bit of anger in me.
I am aware that a lot of people think this is the case, when someone achieves good results that they would simply say that everyone is a genius in a bull market, and I can understand where they are coming from.
In a bull market, it is technically easier to make money because the market is going up. In this post, I will discuss this topic and how this dogma was created by a crowd who was scared of losing money and created ideas based on other people’s successes.
HOW DO YOU DEFINE A GENIUS?
First, let’s think about this sentence. “Everyone is a genius in a bull market.”
How do people define others as a genius?
Normally, people would define someone as a genius if they are making money from the market.
A counter-argument for this could be that of course you would make money because it’s a bull market, as if this is enough justification for their success and that their success should be overlooked.
This is a very important mistake to avoid. You should not overlook someone’s success simply because it is during a bull market.
When you think about the markets for the past 20 years, there is the 2020 market crash, the 2008 real estate market crash, and the .com crash in 2000.
These are three crashes in the past 20 years. If you look at the bigger picture, this means that out of 20 years, 17 of these years the market was going up.
If you call everyone a genius when there is a bull market, then essentially the entire market is a genius and there is no distinction.
So 17 out of 20 years the market is going up.
The truth is, if you are not investing, then you are not a genius.
When someone says to you that everyone is a genius in a bull market, you have to be very careful and think deeply about what they are saying.
If everyone is a genius in a bull market and that is your justification for other people’s success, then you are only looking at the surface. Let me give you some examples.
Cathie Wood from Arc in 2020 made a return of 124% from ARKK which is one of the funds.
If you don’t want to believe in her success, you can simply say “Everyone is a genius in bull markets”, right?
Your brain shuts off and you do not need to look any further. There is no further reason for our own success because everyone is a genius in the bull market.
Cathie Wood focuses on investing in innovating companies that are loss-making, which means higher risks that would be profitable in the future.
As of today, she is investing in a company that is making a loss.
The secret is that she does her research, the kind of hard work that you don’t see on screen.
If you visit the Ark website you will see a more in-depth description about their investing strategy and it gives you the figures for their return in the last five years.
Another example is Bill Ackman who made 80% or more in 2020 for his portfolio.
Well, 2020 was a good year and everyone is a genius in a bull market.
You can see how this kind of thinking is limiting your mind from seeing results beyond the surface.
On the surface level he is doing great in a bull market.
Beyond that, what you don’t see is his ability to time the market.
To be able to short before the COVID crash in such a way that you make billions of dollars on the way down and also billions of dollars on the way up is an incredible feat.
BE A LEARNER NOT A HATER
When you think about other people posting about their success, there is always something for you to learn from them. Each hedge fund manager, investment manager, YouTube Guru has their own investing strategy.
Your goal as a viewer is to learn what the secret is, to study them, and to take lessons from them and not develop envy or hate.
When you think about investing, you are on a journey to learn and invest,, and what’s really important is that you master investing.
It’s not important for you whether Cathie Wood, myself, Bill Ackman, or Warren Buffett are successful and master investing, because we have already done that and it is your turn and your job to make sure your own self can become successful as well.
The way I see it is that if someone is telling me that everyone is a genius in a bull market, they are simply hurt because they have experienced some losses before, which I also have.
They probably have been burned by another course or guru or something else. When you are learning something new, there is a chance of failure.
For myself, I have placed over 3,000 trades so I can confidently say that I failed at least three dozen times. Most of them were losses until I figured out a strategy.
The difference between someone who has mastered investing versus someone who hasn’t is knowledge, which can be acquired in two ways.
First, you need to try it yourself. I have gone down this route before and I can simply tell you that you will need to experiment with and try a lot of strategies.
I personally tried 300 strategies and could only come up with a handful that actually work. Personally, I only use a single strategy.
FIX YOUR INVESTING MINDSET
When you think about investing, think of everyone as a genius in a bull market.
As in, everyone has the potential to be a genius, but there is a certain amount of hard work you need to put in before you can achieve massive results.
The truth is, no one has a crystal ball to tell you what’s going to happen going forward so you need to do all of your own research. If you do your own research and invest in the markets over time, you will make money.
If you look at the S & P 500, it goes up by around 8% a year. If you call everyone a genius in the bull market, it is simply not helpful to yourself because your mind is turned off from seeing what is truly important, which is giving the market 8% a year.
Are you faster or slower than the market? That is what is truly important.
If you are earning the same amount as what everyone else is earning, then technically your boat is just rising along with the tide.
You are not going faster than anyone else, you are going at the same pace. This is not a bad strategy, however if you are putting in effort to master investing then you want to be going faster than the general public.
So the general public is 8% and if you are able to achieve 15% when the market is making 10%, then congratulations. You are a genius.
If you are not able to achieve 8% and instead you are making 5% or maybe even losing money during the bull market, I just want to say don’t give up because chances are, you are somewhere along your investing journey before you are enlightened.
MY INVESTING JOURNEY
Here is a little bit about my personal investing story.
When I started investing 13 years ago, I spent the first 8 years trying different strategies.
There are a lot of misconceptions of what “trying different strategies” really means so let’s elaborate on that. It means that you are failing, losing, making bad decisions, and losing money.
It means that you get frustrated because you spent all night staying up until 2:00AM testing out different parameters within a single strategy to figure out if it works or not.
It means a lot of failure, and it is not at all like climbing a staircase where every step you take you go up along the way.
Most of the time, you’re actually going down and you usually go down until you figure it out.
This is something very interesting about investing.
Until you have all the pieces together, it won’t work. It’s like having a car with no gas so the car doesn’t start, or having the perfect car but the car doesn’t have an engine.
Even though you have four wheels, gas, all the little outer components, the car still doesn’t start because you’re missing something, or missing one component is enough for your car to break down. This is why learning by yourself and investing by yourself is so aggravating and time-consuming.
MAKE CONFIDENT CHOICES
The next time you hear “Everyone is a genius in a bull market,” make sure to stop and think and try to understand why that person is successful.
There’s a secret and a formula to it, possibly one that can be replicated. You can learn from this person and apply what you’ve learned to yourself.
When it comes to investing, what’s important is not how much Warren Buffett or Bill Ackman or Cathie Wood or myself is making, what’s important is that you are making a better return for yourself, that you become more confident in investing, and have more faith in the strategy or mutual funds that you choose.
If you are choosing to invest in ETF funds and get 8% and you are comfortable with your decision, then that is fantastic. As long as you are fully aware and confident in your conscious decisions.
I made this post for everyone with the purpose of giving you some inspiration to move forward and to not get bogged down by all the noise on YouTube or other platforms.
I know some people have good pension or credibility and make all these kinds of videos and posts telling you that everyone is a genius in a bull market and that’s simply the end of it all, but in reality you need to look a little deeper than that.
Everyone in a genius when it comes to a bull market, I recently came across this line on YouTube and I thought it was quite interesting because it made me a little bit angry. And a lot of people think that, you know, when someone achieves good results, they would just say, well, did you know, everyone is a genius in a bull market? And I understand where they're coming from. When you're looking at a bull markets, it is technically easier to make money because the market is up. And in this video, I'm going to talk about how to think about this single sentence, this dogma per se, created by the crowd, because they are afraid of losing money and to create this trust in other people's results.
Before we start, I just want to say that to 96.4% of you are not yet subscribed and it is free. So you can always change your mind in the future. And in terms of the giveaway, this time is going to be fooled by randomness. And I'll talk more about it and announced a winner by the end of the video. So make sure you stay till the end now, in terms of investing a celebrator, I just want to celebrate another success story where Serena made 32% gain from Altrix in just two months. So congratulations, Serena. And this month I'm looking for 20 professionals without a financial background to help them master investing. And a stretch goal is 30 people. And I'll have more details at the end of the video.
So first off, let's think about this sentence. Everyone is a genius in a bull market. How do people with defined other people as genius? Well, the fact that they're making money, basically, you know, maybe I'm making 15, 20% in a bull market and then counter argument would be, well, of course you're making money because it's a bull market. And as if that has justified their success and such that their success is nothing special, and this is a very important mistake to avoid. Because when you think about the markets for the last 20 years, you have to 2020 market crash, right? We're just experiencing the 2008 market crash for real estate. You also had the.com crash in 2000. Now, when you think about all three crashes in the last 20 years, so we just keep that simple picture in mind and you flip it around. It means that out of 20 years, 17 years are going up.
If you call everyone is a genius. When it is a bull market, then essentially the entire market is a genius. There's no distinction. Well, 17 years are going up. And the truth is, if you are not investing, you're not a genius, right? When someone say to you, everyone is a genius at a bull market, you gotta be very careful and you need to think deeply about what they're saying. If everyone is a genius in a bull markets, and that's your justification for other people's success, and you're only looking at the surface. Now, let me give you one example. Cathy wood from arc in 2020, she made 124% from RK, which one of the fund. And if you don't want to believe in her success, then you can simply say, everyone is a genius in Nepal markets, right? Your brain shuts off. You don't need to look further.
There's no further reason for our success because obviously everyone is a genius in the bull market. Another example, 2020 bill Ackman made 80 something percent for his portfolio. Well, 2020 is a good year. Everyone is a genius in a bull market. And you see how that kind of thinking is actually limiting your mind to seeing beyond the results. For example, Cassie would focuses on investing in innovative companies that are loss-making, which means higher risks and would be profit-making in the future. Now, as of today, she's investing in the company, it's making a loss. Is there any guarantee that's the company will make a profit in the future? No. So what's the secret. The secret is that she does her research. That kind of hard work is what you don't see on screen. When you go to the website for Ark, they kind of explain a little bit about their investing strategy and it gives you their return for the last five years.
And that's pretty much it. And for bill Ackman, he made 80 something percent this year. And what you don't see is again, his ability to time to market. So the ability to short before the COVID crash, such that he made billions dollar on the way down and also made billions of dollars on the way up. When you think about other people posting their success, there is something for you to learn from them. And each hedge fund manager, investment manager, YouTube GRU has their own investing strategy. And your goal as the viewer is to learn what that secret is, is to study them is to take the lessons from them and not develop hate. Because when you think about investing and you're on this journey to learning, investing, what's really, really important is that you master investing, it's not important for Kathy would myself, bill Ackman, Warren buffet do master investing because we have already done that is your job to make sure your self is successful.
And the way I see it is that if someone is telling me, everyone is a genius in a bull market, they're simply hurts because they have experienced some losses before, which I also have. And they have been burned by another course and not a guru or something else. When you are learning something new, there is a chance of failure. And for myself, I have placed over 3000 trades. So I can confidently say I failed three dozen times. Most of them are losers before I figure out the strategy. And the difference between someone who has mastered investing versus someone who has not it's knowledge. And you can acquire knowledge in two ways. First, you tried yourself and I've done that route. And I can simply tell you, you need to try a lot of strategies. I tried 300 strategies, and I only came up with a handful that work, and I only personally use a single strategy.
So when you think about investing, think about everyone as a genius in a bull market, think all of this together, there is a certain amount of hard work you need to put in. And the truth is no one has a crystal ball to tell you what's going to happen going forward. So you need to do all your own research. And if you do your own research and you invest in the markets over time, you will make money. Because when you look at the S and P 500, it goes up by around 8% a year. And when you say everyone is a genius and the bull market is simply not helpful to yourself, because it's just your mind off from seeing what is truly important. What's truly important is given the market is going 8% a year. Are you faster or slower than the markets? And that's, what's important.
If you are making the same as what everyone else is making, then technically your boat is just rising along with the tide. You're not really going faster than everyone else. You're just going the same pace as everyone else. Now that is not a bad strategy. If you don't know anything about investing, if you are going to put in the effort to master investing, then you want to go faster than the general public. And you know, the general public is 8%, right? They tell you already. So you know that. So if you are able to achieve 15% when the market is making 10%, I want to say, congratulations, because you are a genius. If you're not able to achieve 8% and you're making 5%, maybe you're even losing money during the bull market that I want to say, don't give up because chances are, you are somewhere along your investing journey before you are enlightened, per se.
I can share a little bit about my personal story. When I started investing 13 years ago, now I spend the first eight years trying different strategies. Now, what people don't really understand is what trying different strategies really mean. It means you're failing. It means you're losing. It means you're making bad decisions and you're losing money. You're frustrated because you spent all night waking up till 2:00 AM in the morning, testing out different parameters within a single strategy to figure out whether it works or not. It means a lot of failure. It's not like you're going up this staircase. And every step you go up along the way, most of the time you're going down. If not most of the time, it's all the time you're going down until you figure it out. And this is something very interesting about investing is that until you have all the pieces together, working for you, your car for a vehicle, it's basically broken because you can imagine you have a car, you have no gas.
Well, it wouldn't start. Even though it as a perfect car, imagine you have a car without the engine. Well, it wouldn't start to because it's missing the engine. Even though you have four wheels, even though you have gas, even though you have all the little outer components, and that's why learning, investing by yourself takes such a long time. You need to have all the components for the car. And if you're missing one component, that car can break down. Imagine you have one wheel instead of three wheels. See, I think you get the analogy by now. So when someone tells you in the future, that everyone is a genius in a bull market, stop give yourself some time to think, try to understand why that person is successful. There's a secret to it. There's a formula to it. And it is possibly repeatable as well. And if something can be repeatable, then you can learn from that person such that you can replicate the results for yourself.
Because when it comes to your investing journey, what's important is not that Warren buffet is making 30% a year or bill Ackman or Cathy wood or myself. What's important. It's you are making a better return is that you become more confident when it comes to investing is that you have faith in your investing strategy or the mutual funds you choose. And that's, you are able to sleep at night and make a higher return than the market. And if you decide to invest in ETF funds and get 8% and you sleep at night, fantastic, that's great. And it's a decision. And as long as you are fully aware of that, and you are making that conscious decision, you'll be in a good shape. I made the CDO just for you. So then it gives you some inspiration to move forward and not get bogged down by all the noise on YouTube. Because obviously there are a lot of YouTubers there. I know some of them have great pension and they make these kinds of videos where to tell you, everyone is a genius in a bull market. When in fact you need to look a little bit deeper than that. So
When it comes to investing, my goal is really to make 30% a year. And when I first started, this definitely seemed like a stretch goal to me is like going to Mars. And after I've mastered investing, I actually help a lot of other people to master investing as well. For example, Serena, where she made 32% from Altrix in two months, and this is the 117 case study in investing accelerator. So if you want to learn more, then I would strongly suggest you to grab the four hour free training on my website. And this is perfect for you. If you are a full-time professional retiree with no financial background, and you want to manage your own portfolio with confidence, and you want to learn how to get 30% per year. So this training is a beast. And if you have never attended it, a lot of people are very impressed by the content I put within there.
It is very long. So make sure you grab a cup of coffee or even two cups before you start. So the link is five minute investing.com/free case study. And you'll find a link below in the description. Now, when it comes to my journey to making 30% is definitely a transformation because I went from losing money every year to making 30% plus a year. And my confidence initially was very low. And now I'm very confident and investing is now a proven, simple and profitable strategy for me. And I have a very high financial understanding. And I also use something called stock options, which is an advanced strategy. And it took me eight years to master investing. And now I have condensed everything I know into a four week coaching program called investing accelerator. So like I mentioned, this video, I'm looking to help 20 professionals this month without a financial background.
So if you feel like you are one of the 20, then you can schedule a call with me. And my calendar is in the description as well. And my stretch goal is to help 30 people in total. So maybe it will be one of them. Now, when it comes to the giveaway, I'm giving away fooled by random list. This is an interesting book about probability. So if you want to learn more about probability, when it comes to investing, then I would recommend you to take a read for this book. And if you want to get this book for free, then just tap like and say, you want the book in the comments and I'll announce the winner. Once we reach a hundred likes, and sometimes I might even announce it earlier now for one of the previous videos where I give away at another book called the infinite game, the winner is Jack Ang.
He left the comments on my video two months ago. So if you are watching this video, Jack, then make sure you email me all your details. I've sent you the instruction and I'll send the book your way. So that is pretty much it for this video. And in the next video, I'm going to talk about internet scams. So that is quite an interesting topic. I feel like I resonate a lot with investing scams, business, coaching scams and online marketing scams, because I have been scammed before many years ago. It doesn't mean I have a negative view towards investment coaching, online marketing, or even online businesses in general. And I will share my view on how to think about that and how you can be better prepared when it comes to investment scams. Because obviously there are a ton of scams out there and you need to be diligent and do your own research before joining a course to make sure that it is the right fit for you. So I'll see you in the next video.
I would like your book to learn more about investing. When we communicated a couple of months ago, my portfolio was at $4,000.00. about 15 percent. Since then my portfolio has risen to over 130% about $11,500 . I think I’m doing good , but I’m hesitant to boast about my positive returns because this last pu;black or selloff reduced my portfolio to about 75% after I cashed in on 75% of my total investment. Your input has made me more aware and I thank you for your messages to the public followers. I won’t believe that I am good enough to sustain these kind of gains ;that is why I am still listening to your experiences and leads. John Sullivan